The UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has spent the past 18 months dismantling the case for the app store duopoly. In October 2025, after a landmark investigation, the CMA found that Apple and Google hold illegally dominant positions in app distribution. By February 2026, both tech giants committed to "fairer practices"—but what does that actually mean for indie developers and startup founders trying to build profitable mobile businesses in the UK?

This article unpacks the current landscape: the real commitments both companies have made, the legal battles still unfolding, and the practical steps UK founders should take to navigate a market in flux.

The CMA's October 2025 Ruling: What Actually Changed

On 4 October 2025, the CMA concluded its investigation into Apple's and Google's control over UK app distribution and concluded both firms held illegally dominant positions. This wasn't a fine—not yet. Instead, it triggered a phase where both companies were required to negotiate commitments to address the findings.

By February 2026, the CMA announced both Apple and Google had formally committed to changes. However, the specifics remain limited in the public domain, and both companies reserved the right to challenge the CMA's authority under new legislation.

Apple's Response and the December 2025 Appeal

In December 2025, Apple filed an appeal against the CMA's ruling, disputing the finding of dominance and arguing the market is more competitive than the CMA determined. This appeal is significant: it means Apple does not accept the CMA's legal conclusions, even though the company has made commitments "in principle." Founders relying on immediate, binding changes to Apple's fee structure should treat December 2025 as a reset date, not a resolution.

The appeal process typically takes 12–18 months through UK courts, meaning any final, enforceable changes to Apple's model are unlikely before late 2027 at earliest.

Google's Position

Google has taken a different approach. The company committed to allowing alternative app stores and sideloading on Android devices in the UK, a significant departure from its previous stance. However, Google has also indicated this will require technical infrastructure work and will roll out in phases through 2026–2027. No timeline for reduced commission rates (currently 15–30% depending on the app category) has been publicly confirmed.

What the February 2026 Commitments Actually Include (and Don't)

Both Apple and Google's commitments are vague on specifics. Here's what we know—and what we don't:

Confirmed Commitments

  • Google: Alternative app store access. Google committed to allowing third-party app stores on Android in the UK. This is the most concrete change announced. However, the timeline is staggered, security requirements are still being defined, and payment processing remains unclear.
  • Apple: Ongoing negotiations. Apple stated it would work with the CMA on commitments but has not publicly specified reduced fees, alternative app stores, or sideloading as commitments. The company's appeal suggests it disputes the CMA's findings.
  • Both: Payment system clarity. Both companies acknowledged the need to clarify payment processing and developer billing, though specifics are deferred to ongoing discussions with the CMA.

Not Confirmed (and Unlikely Soon)

  • Reduced commission rates. Neither Apple (15% for small businesses, 30% for others) nor Google (15–30%) has committed to lower fees.
  • UK sideloading for iOS. Apple has not committed to allowing sideloading on iPhones in the UK, despite the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA) requiring it in EU jurisdictions. The UK is no longer bound by the DMA post-Brexit.
  • Binding alternative payment methods. While both companies acknowledged payment flexibility, neither has committed to removing their take from in-app purchases processed via third-party payment gateways—a key issue for subscription and gaming apps.

The Regulatory Landscape: CMA Powers and the Digital Markets Competition Bill

The CMA's enforcement powers under current competition law are limited. The agency can investigate abuse of dominance, but does not have the proactive regulatory powers that the EU's Digital Markets Act grants to the European Commission.

However, this is changing. The UK Government is expected to introduce the Digital Markets Competition (DMC) Bill in late 2026 or early 2027. This legislation would give the CMA new powers to:

  • Designate "digital gatekeepers" (firms like Apple and Google) and impose ongoing compliance obligations.
  • Set enforceable codes of conduct without waiting for evidence of abuse.
  • Fast-track investigations and issue binding remedies.

The DMC Bill is critical for UK founders because it could shift the burden of proof: instead of the CMA proving Apple or Google broke the law, gatekeepers would have to prove their practices are fair. This is not yet law, but it's in the legislative pipeline and expected to be a priority for the Government in 2026–2027.

What the Bill Means for App Store Economics

If the DMC Bill passes in its current form, the CMA could eventually require Apple and Google to:

  • Reduce or justify commission rates (currently 15–30%).
  • Allow alternative payment processors without platform commissions.
  • Guarantee fair app ranking and discoverability for competing services.

But this is speculative. For now, UK founders should plan for 2026–2027 as a transition period where enforcement is happening through CMA negotiations, not new legislation.

What This Means for UK Indie Dev Startups Today

The CMA probes have created both risks and opportunities for UK startup founders building mobile apps. Here's how to think about it:

Opportunity: Alternative Distribution Channels (Android)

Google's commitment to allow alternative app stores on Android in the UK is real, even if the timeline is uncertain. For indie developers, this is significant: it means you may soon be able to distribute Android apps without paying Google's 15–30% commission.

Action for founders: If you're building an Android app with a subscription or in-app purchase model, start exploring alternative app store partnerships now. Services like Samsung Galaxy Store or Huawei AppGallery already exist, but UK availability and user reach are limited. Keep an eye on announcements from Epic Games Store and others about UK expansion.

Risk: Apple's Continued Dominance and Appeal Timeline

Apple controls roughly 30% of the UK smartphone market (by devices), but generates 65–70% of app store revenue due to higher user spending. Apple's December 2025 appeal means the company is contesting the CMA's legal findings, not just negotiating voluntary commitments.

Action for founders: If your app is iOS-only or heavily iOS-dependent, do not assume fees will fall in 2026 or 2027. Plan your unit economics using Apple's current 15–30% commission as a fixed cost. If your app's margin is too thin to survive this, you're already at risk and should consider Android-first or cross-platform strategies.

Seed Funding and Investment Climate

The CMA probes have not yet materially shifted UK seed funding averages. According to the most recent available data (Beauhurst's Q4 2025 UK Startup Report), early-stage app and software startups closed seed rounds averaging £750k–£1.2M, broadly consistent with 2024 levels. Climate tech and deeptech have dominated seed funding in 2025–2026, not mobile app ventures specifically.

However, investors are increasingly asking founders about app store dependency during due diligence. A startup with a diversified revenue model (SaaS, B2B, subscription outside the app store) is viewed as lower-risk than one relying solely on app store commissions.

Action for founders: If you're fundraising, be transparent about app store fee exposure in your financial model. Show how you'll adapt if fees remain at current levels or, conversely, if alternative stores become viable. This signals maturity to investors and reduces perceived regulatory risk.

Practical Steps for UK Founders Navigating the Transition

1. Audit Your App Store Economics

Calculate the true cost of app store commissions in your business model:

  • If you're taking in-app purchases, your take-home is 70–85% (gross revenue minus 15–30% commission).
  • If you're on a subscription model, the commission may be waived after the first year (Apple's current policy), but this varies.
  • If you're a game with in-game monetization, commissions are typically 30%, eating into your margin significantly.

Know this number. It's the first line of defense against regulatory surprises.

2. Diversify Revenue Streams

The safest hedge against app store dominance is not to be wholly dependent on it. Consider:

  • Web-based alternatives: Offer your core service via web (PWA or responsive web app) where you control payment processing and avoid commissions entirely.
  • B2B licensing: If your app serves businesses, explore direct licensing or white-label partnerships that bypass app stores.
  • Freemium + ads: For consumer apps, ads (via ad networks, not app store mediation) can reduce reliance on in-app purchase commissions.

3. Track CMA and DMC Bill Progress

The CMA's website publishes updates on digital markets investigations. Set a quarterly reminder to check for announcements on Apple's appeal outcome, Google's sideloading rollout, and any DMC Bill legislative progress. This is not glamorous, but it's critical for long-term planning.

4. Engage with Trade Bodies and Industry Coalitions

Organizations like the TechUK and UK Interactive Entertainment (UKIE) actively engage with the CMA and Government on digital markets. If you're an indie developer or small app studio, these groups advocate for your interests and provide early warnings on regulatory changes.

5. Plan for Alternative App Store Distribution (Android)

Google's commitment to allow alternative stores is not yet fully live, but preparation time is now. If your Android app has strong retention and monetization:

  • Identify alternative app store partners (Samsung Galaxy Store, Epic Games Store for Android, etc.).
  • Understand their requirements (payment processing, content review, regional availability).
  • Estimate the opportunity: If Google takes 30% and an alternative store takes 15%, the margin improvement is material (15% vs 30%).

The Investment and Funding Angle

Early-stage app developers are not seeing a funding bump directly tied to CMA probes. However, the regulatory clarity is encouraging for certain segments:

  • App development tools and infrastructure: Tools that help developers reduce app store commission exposure (e.g., payment processors, alternative distribution platforms) are attracting investor interest.
  • Cross-platform and web-first startups: Investors favor founders building services that are not locked into app stores, seeing lower regulatory risk.
  • Gaming and subscription apps: These segments are under the most pressure from commissions, so founders with innovative monetization strategies (e.g., blockchain-based in-game economies, community-funded games) are gaining traction.

For fundraising purposes, frame CMA probes as an opportunity, not a threat. Investors want to see that you're thinking strategically about regulation and building a business model that can thrive in multiple scenarios.

Forward-Looking Analysis: What to Expect in Late 2026 and Beyond

Q3–Q4 2026: Regulatory Milestones

  • Google sideloading rollout (expected Q3–Q4 2026). Google is likely to announce a phased rollout of alternative app store access for Android in the UK. Watch for technical details on security, user consent, and payment processing.
  • Apple appeal developments (Q3–Q4 2026). Apple's appeal may see court hearings or preliminary rulings. Any adverse ruling could accelerate Apple's negotiations with the CMA, but a favorable ruling could delay changes for months or years.
  • DMC Bill progress (Q4 2026 into 2027). The Digital Markets Competition Bill is expected to be introduced in late 2026. Industry consultation and parliamentary debates will signal whether the CMA will gain the powers needed to proactively regulate app store practices.

2027 and Beyond: The Inflection Point

By mid-2027, the UK regulatory landscape for app stores will likely look materially different:

  • Android alternative app stores will be partially live in the UK, with at least one or two credible alternatives offering lower commission rates or better terms.
  • Apple's stance will be clearer: either it will have lost its appeal and be negotiating binding commitments with the CMA, or it will have won and the CMA will be preparing to escalate via new DMC Bill powers.
  • The DMC Bill will be in parliament or recently passed, giving the CMA a clearer mandate to regulate gatekeepers proactively.

For founders, this is the point at which app store economics will genuinely shift. A subscription app or game with 30% Apple commissions in 2026 may have the option to reduce exposure in 2027–2028, either via alternative stores (Android) or via forced changes (Apple, if DMC Bill passes and CMA acts).

The Longer Game: EU Alignment?

The EU's Digital Markets Act is already forcing Apple to allow sideloading on iPhones and alternative app stores across the bloc. While the UK is not bound by the DMA, the regulatory logic is similar. If the DMC Bill passes and proves effective, the UK may eventually mirror aspects of the EU's approach, bringing sideloading and alternative stores to iOS as well.

This is a 2–3 year outlook, not something to plan on today. But for founders building apps intended for UK and EU markets, the trajectory is clear: app store dominance is eroding, and distribution will become more fragmented and competitive.

Conclusion: Navigating Regulatory Uncertainty

The CMA's probes into Apple and Google have confirmed what many indie developers already knew: app store commissions are extractive, and the duopoly limits choice. October 2025's ruling and February 2026's commitments are real progress, but they are not immediate relief.

For UK startup founders today, the guidance is straightforward:

  • Assume current fees are fixed for 2026 and plan accordingly. Don't build a unit-economic model that only works if commissions fall.
  • Diversify revenue and distribution channels. Web, B2B, and alternative stores are insurance policies against app store dominance.
  • Track regulatory progress quarterly. The DMC Bill, Apple's appeal, and Google's sideloading rollout are the key signals. Set reminders and stay informed.
  • Engage with your industry. TechUK, UKIE, and other trade bodies are shaping the CMA's thinking. Your voice matters.
  • Use regulatory uncertainty as a competitive advantage. Founders who are thinking strategically about regulation while competitors are ignoring it will build more resilient, investor-friendly businesses.

The app store duopoly is being dismantled, but slowly. By late 2027, the landscape will be visibly different. Until then, adapt, diversify, and stay vigilant.